Today, Crux released our mid-year report, “The State of Clean Energy Finance: 2025 Mid-Year Market Intelligence Report.” The report dives into the transferable tax credit market in the first half of 2025 and — for the first time — clean energy lending and tax equity transactions.
The insights and market trends are based on Crux’s leading transaction dataset, consisting of $40 billion in tax transfers reported to or completed on the Crux platform since 2023, as well as our inaugural survey of the largest tax equity investors. The report covers:
Download the executive summary
The report finds that the market for transferable tax credits has grown rapidly — Crux projects that tax credit monetization in 2025 will total $55–60 billion, up from $52 billion in 2024. This growth comes despite headwinds in the market in the first half of 2025. Policy overhang and a tightening tax credit insurance market weighed on some deals, pushing some prices down.
Nonetheless, the market remained dynamic and active through 1H2025 and helped support growth in the tax equity and debt markets, as well. Key findings from the report include:
Crux estimates that the total transferable tax credit market exceeded $20 billion in the first half of 2025, an increase of nearly 2x over the first half of 2024. A critical driver of this growth was the broadening range of technologies and sponsors active in the market. Energy storage projects in particular gained market share alongside established solar and wind deals, as well as newly eligible credits from advanced manufacturing, clean fuels, geothermal, and other sectors.
Tax equity investment is on track to increase 10–20% relative to 2024, according to Crux’s database of tax equity commitments. For the full year 2025, the data suggests investments will reach $32–35 billion, up from $29 billion in 2024. Hybrid tax equity structures, which are structured to transfer a portion of the tax credits, made up more than 60% of tax equity commitments in 2025. Crux’s data shows that transfers from tax equity will total $11–13 billion in 2025, up from $7 billion in 2024.
Larger and higher-quality sponsors enjoyed substantially better market access in 1H2025, according to Crux’s database. Crux has historically observed that investment grade (IG)–rated sellers earn a price premium and that premium deals tend to move earlier in the market. Both of these themes were exaggerated in the first half of the year.
While production tax credit (PTC) pricing was comparable to 2024, prices for investment tax credits (ITCs) diverged significantly. For 2025, ITCs sold by investment-grade sponsors transacted at an average premium of $0.03. Non-investment-grade sellers saw lower average pricing than 2024 levels.
Energy storage, including hybrid solar+storage, attracted substantial investment in the first half of 2025. Hybrid solar+storage and standalone energy storage ITCs accounted for about 26% of tax credits sold in 1H2025, a sizable increase from the same period in 2024 (9%).
Not all technologies enjoy the same accelerating investment as storage. Onshore and offshore wind energy face headwinds to new investments, and the proportion of wind PTCs sold in the transfer market declined to 9.5% during the first half of 2025, from 33.0% in the first half of 2024.
Crux’s analysis of the impact from the One Big Beautiful Bill suggests that corporate tax liabilities will be 20–30% lower in 2025. A large proportion of buyers are still digesting the effects of the tax law change, but analysis by the Joint Committee on Taxation indicated that the bill could reduce corporate tax payments by $100 billion in 2025. Third-party analysis suggests the impact could be even greater.
Buyers in Crux’s survey acknowledged that their tax capacity has been impacted heavily by policy changes; 73% said that policy has influenced their 2025 liabilities, and 60% said that it has influenced the amount of tax credits they intend to purchase. Crux forecasts that quarterly deal volume will reach a low point in Q3 before beginning to recover in Q4.
Coverage of the tax credit insurance market in the first half of 2025 regularly noted a few key trends:
In aggregate, the prevalence of insurance coverage declined slightly year over year.
Download the executive summary for more.
The full report — including more than 50 figures and tables, detailed tax credit pricing curves by tax credit and technology type, composition of tax equity investments by structure and project type, and more — is only available to users of Crux’s platform. From the largest marketplace for clean energy financing mechanisms to market-standard documentation, full-service support from an expert team, and authoritative market intelligence and policy analysis, Crux helps make clean energy financing more liquid, efficient, and intelligent. Learn more about working with us.
